LONDON — In a major update to its national climate agenda, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has pledged to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 47% compared to 2019 levels by 2035. This announcement comes just days before the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) is set to begin in Azerbaijan, signaling the UAE’s proactive stance on global climate obligations.
This bold target places the UAE among the most proactive nations updating their commitments to meet the Paris Agreement’s net-zero goals, setting a critical tone for the upcoming summit. As one of the world’s top 10 oil producers, the UAE’s new climate strategy will have both symbolic and practical implications on the international climate agenda.
Why This Matters: Leadership from a Fossil Fuel Powerhouse
The UAE emissions reduction 2035 target is not just a policy update; it’s a statement. Given the UAE’s status as a major oil exporter, its decision to raise its emissions reduction target from 40% by 2030 to 47% by 2035 carries weight. The timing is strategic—releasing the plan just before COP29 shows intent to lead the climate conversation rather than follow it.
Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs, form the cornerstone of the Paris Agreement, a global framework for reducing emissions to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Countries are required to revise and submit updated NDCs every five years, and the UAE is among the first major emitters to do so well ahead of the February 2025 deadline.
Inside the UAE’s New Climate Blueprint
Under its revised NDC, the UAE has laid out a roadmap that includes a multi-pronged approach to reduce dependence on fossil fuels:
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Expansion of solar capacity: With its abundant sunlight, the UAE plans to significantly increase investment in solar power to generate clean electricity.
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Nuclear energy expansion: The country is continuing to build on its Barakah Nuclear Power Plant as a clean, baseload energy source.
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Waste-to-energy technologies: These innovations aim to convert municipal waste into usable energy, thereby addressing emissions and landfills simultaneously.
In essence, the UAE’s plan aims to deliver a more resilient and diversified energy portfolio, steering away from fossil fuels and toward renewables.
A Balancing Act: Emissions Reductions vs Oil Expansion
Despite its ambitious goals, the UAE is still facing criticism over its ongoing fossil fuel activities. Weeks before hosting COP28, its national oil company, ADNOC, awarded contracts worth $17 billion for developing new oil fields, including the Hail and Ghasha offshore fields.
A recent report by Oil Change International also revealed that the UAE, along with Azerbaijan and Brazil—the previous, current, and future COP hosts—are projected to increase their combined oil and gas production by 32% by 2035.
This dual approach—pushing for both renewable energy development and fossil fuel expansion—has raised questions about the UAE’s true climate intentions. Critics argue that domestic emissions reductions do not account for the vast majority of emissions resulting from exported fossil fuels.
Climate Advocacy Groups Respond
Environmental advocacy organizations have been quick to call out what they see as a greenwashing strategy.
“The UAE’s so-called climate target is essentially a greenwashing exercise. Emissions reduction claims lack credibility without robust safeguards against inflated accounting and offsets. Even more troubling is the glaring omission of exported emissions—63% of the UAE’s oil is exported,” said Andreas Sieber, Associate Director of Policy and Campaigns at 350.org.
Sieber and other climate activists demand more transparency, enforceable accountability measures, and a broader emissions accounting approach that includes scope 3 emissions—those produced from the use of exported fuels.
The Path to COP29: What’s Next?
As the UAE heads into COP29, it will need to walk a fine line between its economic dependence on hydrocarbons and its emerging image as a green innovator in the Gulf.
COP28, hosted last year in Dubai, ended with a historic agreement to “transition away from fossil fuels”, a first for any COP declaration. The UAE is now expected to be a model for how a fossil fuel-dependent economy can still take actionable steps toward a sustainable future.
Observers will be watching to see:
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How the UAE enforces these emission cuts
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The role of carbon offsets and trading schemes
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Any future fossil fuel project announcements
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Greater clarity on how “net-zero” is defined domestically
Numbers to Watch
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47% emissions reduction goal vs 2019 baseline by 2035
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40% was the previous pledge for 2030
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$17 billion investment in oil field development
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32% projected oil & gas production increase (UAE, Azerbaijan, Brazil combined) by 2035
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63% of UAE’s oil is exported, contributing to global emissions
Global Implications
If successfully implemented, the UAE’s new climate strategy could influence other oil-rich nations—like Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the U.S.—to rethink their own emissions strategies. The move also positions the UAE as a climate-tech hub, attracting international green tech companies, carbon offset brokers, and renewable infrastructure investors.
Furthermore, the updated NDC serves as an early benchmark for what global ambition could look like in the next phase of the Paris Agreement’s implementation timeline, especially as nations gear up for the global stocktake in 2025.
Final Thoughts: A Paradox in Progress
The UAE’s pledge to cut emissions by 47% by 2035 is undeniably ambitious, particularly from a country whose economy is deeply intertwined with the oil industry. Yet, ambition without full transparency and alignment across domestic and international emissions risks undermining the credibility of the effort.
As we approach COP29, the international community will be scrutinizing how such climate commitments are implemented—not just announced. The UAE’s leadership role, therefore, is not just about setting targets but also about leading by example.
